home icon user icon
Welcome to International Network for Natural Sciences | INNS Pub.
Home My Account
Submit Manuscript
double_slash
breadcumb_bg

Conceptual Framework for Climate Vulnerability and Conflicts in the Coastal Districts of Thatta and Sujawal, Sindh, Pakistan

Paper Details

Research Paper 01/04/2021
Views (711) Download (54)
current_issue_feature_image
publication_file

Conceptual Framework for Climate Vulnerability and Conflicts in the Coastal Districts of Thatta and Sujawal, Sindh, Pakistan

Noor Fatima, Aamir Alamgir, Moazzam Ali Khan, Khalid Mehmood
Int. J. Biosci.18( 4), 60-76, April 2021.
Certificate: IJB 2021 [Generate Certificate]
Key: Adaptive capacityClimate changeConflictResource scarcityVulnerability

Abstract

This paper explores the linkages between climate change, vulnerability and conflict in the coastal communities of districts Thatta and Sujawal in Sindh province of Pakistan. This coastal region is highly vulnerable to climate change and is exposed to several climatic issues and their implications. Trend analysis shows that during 1961-2020, the average maximum temperature of district Thatta and Sujawal varied from 30.9 to 34.6oC having an overall mean of 32.3oC. Similarly, the minimum average temperature of district Thatta extended between 19.6 to 28.0oC with an overall mean minimum temperature of 21.7oC. The average minimum and maximum amount of precipitation fluctuated between 0.01mm (2018) to 713 (1967) mm with an overall last 60 years mean rainfall of 160.63 mm. The adaptive capacity of these districts is low due to weak infrastructure and poor governance. The Human Development Index (HDI) of Thatta and Sujawal was 0.4 and 0.3 respectively. The Education Index for both districts was 0.3 and the values of the Health Index were 0.6 and 0.5 respectively. Similarly, the Living Standard Index of Thatta and Sujawal was 0.3 and 0.2 respectively. Climate change increases overall stress on resources, human insecurity and societal instability, which are likely to breed conflicts among farmers, fishermen and pastoralists. Political factors further prevent effective resource utilization; through capturing resources that aggregate vulnerability, increase a conflict risk and rendering the fragile region less resilient.

VIEWS 117
Cover PDF

Abbasi AGN. 2002. Restoration of Singh’s Primary Rights over River Indus. 18th Convention of SANA, Cherry Hill, New Jersey: 4-7.

Adger WN, Vincent K. 2005. Uncertainty in adaptive capacity. Comptes Rendus Geosciences 337(4), 399-410. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crte.2004.11.004

Adger WN, Pulhin JM, Barnett J, Dabelko GD, Hovelsrud GK, Levy M, Oswald Spring U, Vogel CH. 2014. Human security. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 755-791.

Adnan S, Ullah K, Gao S. 2015. Characterization of drought and its assessment over Sindh, Pakistan during 1951–2010. Journal of Meteorological Research 29(5), 837-857. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-015-4113-z

Alagha S, Bhatti KI, Zaqoot HA, Khan SH, Ansari AK. 2001. Physico-chemical environment of coastal areas in the vicinity of LBOD and tidal Link drain in Sindh, Pakistan after cyclone 2a. International Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering 3(3), 150-155.

Alamgir A. 2015a. Doctoral Dissertation on “Implication of climate change on the Geo Ecosystem at the Sindh Coastal Area, University of Karachi, Pakistan.

Alamgir A, Khan MA, Manino I, Shaukat SS, Shahab S. 2015b. Vulnerability to climate change of surface water resources of coastal areas of Sindh, Pakistan. Desalination and Water Treatment, 57(40), 18668-18678. https://doi.org/10.1080/19443994.2015.1094418

Alamgir A, Khan MA, Shaukat SS, Kazmi SJ, Qureshi S, Khanum F. 2015c. Appraisal of Climate Change Impacts on the Coastal Areas of Sindh Using Remote Sensing Techniques. American-Eurasian J. Agric. & Environ. Sci, 15(6), 1102-1112. http://www.researchgate.net/publication/280610397

Ali A. 2017. Coping with climate change and its impact on productivity, income, and poverty: Evidence from the Himalayan region of Pakistan. International journal of disaster risk reduction 24, 515-525. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.05.006

Ali A, Erenstein O. 2017. Assessing farmer use of climate change adaptation practices and impacts on food security and poverty in Pakistan. Climate Risk Management 16, 183-194. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2016.12.001

Archer DR, Forsythe N, Fowler HJ, Shah SM. 2010. Sustainability of water resources management in the Indus Basin under changing climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 14(8), 1669-1680. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-1669-2010

Baluchistan Times. 2009. Climate change and vulnerable ecosystem of Pakistan Daily Baluchistan Times. Nov 16, 2009.

Chandio AA, Jiang Y, Gessesse AT, Dunya R. 2017. The nexus of agricultural credit, farm size and technical efficiency in Sindh, Pakistan: A stochastic production frontier approach. Journal of the Saudi Society of Agricultural Sciences 18(3), 348-354. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jssas.2017.11.001

Chaniho HB, Rajpar I, Talpur UA, Sial NB, Hassan Z. 2010. Evaluating soil and groundwater salinity in taluka Tando adnanBago, Sindh Pakistan. Journal of Agriculture Engineering and Veterinary Sciences 26, 19-26.

Damage and Need Assessment (DNA) Report. 2011. Floods in Pakistan (2010). Government of Pakistan in Association with Asian Development Bank and World Bank.

DDMP (District Disaster Management Plan). 2017. District Disaster Management Plan (July- 2017 to June-2027). The District Disaster Management Authority (DDMA), District Thatta under the supervision of Provincial Disaster Management Authority, Sindh.

DSS (Development Statistics of Sindh). 2017. Sindh Bureau of Statistics, Government of Sindh.

FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization). Food and Agriculture Organization Executive Brief. Pakistan Flood 2011. Pakistan Floods (FAOEB).

Flood Situation Update. 2011. Executive Brief.  Food & Agriculture Organization (FAO). Focused on Sindh Province. Technical Report No. PMD-25/2012. Pakistan Meteorological Department Research and Development Division P.O. Box No. 1214, Sector H-8/2Islamabad- Pakistan. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2054838

Froese R, Schilling J. 2019. The Nexus of Climate Change, Land Use, and Conflicts. Climate Change and Conflicts. Current Climate Change Reports 5, 24–35. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-019-00122-1.

Gajbhiye S, Meshram C, Mirabbasi R, Sharma SK. 2016. Trend analysis of rainfall time series for Sindh river basin in India. Theoretical and applied climatology 125(3-4), 593-608.

Global Climate Risk Index. 2019. German watch. www.germanwatch.org/en/cri  

Hallegatte S, Fay M, Barbier EB. 2018. Poverty and climate change: introduction. Environment and Development Economics 23(3), 217-233. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1355770X18000141

Hashmi HN, Siddiqui QTM, Ghumman AR, Kamal MA. 2012. A critical analysis of 2010 floods in Pakistan. African Journal of Agricultural Research, 7(7), 1054-1067. https://doi.org/10.5897/AJARX11.036

Höök M, Tang X. 2013. Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review. Energy Policy 52, 97-809. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.10.046

INFORM. 2019. INFORM Risk Index Pakistan. http://www.informindex.org/Portals/0/Inform/2019/country_profiles/PAK.pdf.

IPCC. 2001. Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. IPCC, New York, Cambridge University Press, USA.

IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007. Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Geneva, Cambridge University Press.

IPCC. 2014. Annex II: Glossary. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva, Switzerland.

IPCC. 2014. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

IUCN Report. 2004. The lower Indus River: balancing development and maintenance of

IUCN. The World Conservation Union. 2003. Indus Delta Pakistan: Economic Cost of Reduction in Fresh Water Flows. In: Case Studies in Wetland Valuation No.3. The World Conservation Union. Pakistan Country Office, Karachi.

Kabooro MK. 2014. Hazard, Vulnerability and capacity Assessment of Thatta, Sindh. Lambert Academic Publication.

Kazi A. 2014. A review of the assessment and mitigation of floods in Sindh, Pakistan. Natural hazards 70(1), 839-864. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0850-4

Khan N, Shahid S, Bin IT, Wang XJ. 2019. Spatial distribution of unidirectional trends in temperature and temperature extremes in Pakistan. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 136(3-4), 899-913.

Lobell DB, Marshal BB, Tebaldi C, Mastrandrea DM, Falcon WP, Naylor RL. 2008. Prioritizing Climate Change: Adaptation needs for food security in 2030, Science 319, 607-610. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1152339

Looney R. 2012. Economic Impacts of the Floods in Pakistan. Contemporary South Asia 20(2), 225-241. https://doi.org/10.1080/09584935.2012.670203

Lukas K, Rüttinger L. 2016. Insurgency, Terrorism and Organized Crime in a Warming Climate: Analyzing the Links between Climate Change and Non-State Armed Groups. Adelphi.

Martin H, Jon E, JuditLh P, Xiaowei Q, Tao Z, Philip P. 2012. On the Increased Frequency of Mediterranean Drought. Journal of Climate, 25, 2146–2161. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00296.1.

Memon JA, Thapa GB. 2010. Impacts of upstream irrigation development on deltaic landscape, resources and livelihood-A case of Indus Delta in Sindh Province, Pakistan. International Journal of Environmental and Rural Development, 1(2).

MICS (Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey) Sindh. 2014. Bureau of Statistics, Government of Sindh.

NDMA. 2019. Disaster Management in Sindh with historical perspective. National Disaster Management Authority, Pakistan.

NHDR. 2017. Pakistan National Human Development Report Unleashing the Potential of a Young Pakistan. United Nations Development Program (UNDP), Pakistan. ISBN: 978-969-8736-19-4.

PBS (Pakistan Bureau of Statistics). 2017. Press Release on Provisional Summary Results of the 6th Population and Housing Census–2017. PBS: Islamabad, Pakistan. Government of Pakistan, Ministry of Statistics website.

PMD. 2020. Pakistan Meteorological Department.

PSLM. 2015. Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey 2014-15. National, Provincial and District. Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. Government of Pakistan.

Qureshi AS, McCornick PG, Qadir M, Aslam Z. 2008. Managing salinity and waterlogging in the Indus Basin of Pakistan. Agricultural Water Management 95(1), 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2007.09.014

Rasul G, Mahmood A, Sadiq A, Khan SI. 2012. Vulnerability of the Indus delta to climate change in Pakistan. Pakistan journal of meteorology 8(16).

Rasul G, Afzal M, Zahid M, Bukhari SAA. 2012. Climate Change in Pakistan:

Reeve R. 2012. Peace and Conflict Assessment of South Sudan, London: International Alert.

Salma S, Rehman S, Shah MA. 2012. Rainfall trends in different climate zones of Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Meteorology, 9(17).

Samdani Z. 1995. Salinization threatens irrigation. Economic and Business Review. Daily Dawn, Karachi. III (3-9/06/1995).

SCDA. 2012. Baseline Survey of Coastal Areas, Badin and Thatta District. Sindh Coastal Development Authority. Government of Sindh.

Schilling J. 2012. On Rains, Raids and Relations: A Multi method Approach to Climate Change, Vulnerability, Adaptation and Violent Conflict in Northern Africa and Kenya. Hamburg, University of Hamburg.

Schilling J, Vivekananda J, Khan MA, Pandey N. 2013. Vulnerability to environmental risks and effects on community resilience in mid-west Nepal and south-east Pakistan. Environment and Natural Resources Research 3(4), 27. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/enrr.v3n4p27

Schilling J, Francis O, Jürgen S. 2012. “Raiding pastoral livelihoods: Motives and effects of violent conflict in northwestern Kenya. https://doi.org/10.1186/2041-7136-2-25

Schilling J, Nash SL, Ide T, Scheffran J, Froese R, von Prondzinski P. 2017. Resilience and environmental security: towards joint application in peace building. Global Chang Peace Security, 29(2), 107–27. https://doi.org/10.1080/14781158.2017.

SIDA. 2013. Sindh Water Sector Improvement Phase-I Project: Preparation of Regional Plan for the Left Bank of Indus, Delta and Coastal Zone.

USAID Conflict Assessment Framework Application Guide. 2012. Office of Conflict Management and Mitigation (USAID/DCHA/CMM).

Vivekananda J, Schilling J, Dan S. 2014. Climate resilience in fragile and conflict-affected societies: concepts and approaches, Development in Practice, 24(4), 487-501, https://doi.org/10.1080/09614524.2014.909384

Vivekananda J, Schilling J, Mitra S, Pandey N. 2014. On shrimp, salt and security: livelihood risks and responses in South Bangladesh and East India. Environ Dev Sustain 16(6), 1141–61. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-014-9517-x.

Warner K, Head EM. 2011. Flood and Displacement in Rural Sindh: Peoples’ Perception. Wetland ecosystems and development livelihoods. The World Conservation Union.

White S. 2011. The 2010 Flooding Disaster in Pakistan: An Opportunity for Governance Reform or Another Layer of Dysfunction. Washington D.C: Center for Strategic and International Studies.

World Bank. 2005. Socio-Economic Study & Proposal for Livelihood Improvement: Badin & Thatta Districts, Sindh Pakistan, Agriculture & Rural Development Sector Unit, South Asia Region.

Zahid M, Rasul G. 2010. Rise in summer heat index over Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Meteorology 6(12).

Submit Manuscript