Agricultural drought analysis of Chapai Nawabganj district in Bangladesh
Paper Details
Agricultural drought analysis of Chapai Nawabganj district in Bangladesh
Abstract
The occurrence of agricultural drought is associated with seasonal rainfall variability and can be reflected by seasonal soil moisture deficits that significantly affect crop production. The stochastic behaviors of the largest rainfall amounts were predicted using a first order Markov model. The analysis was carried out using mean, variance, simple and conditional probabilities of dry and wet days. An analysis of variance (ANOVA) was carried out on the rainfall data of some studied areas established and it was found that the annual and seasonal rainfall variability between the stations were insignificant. The daily rainfall data was used to represent the rainfall features of the Chapai Nawabganj district in this study. The monthly rainfall analysis of the different rainy seasons showed high variability. There was also significant monthly variability in rainy days. The analysis of rainfall found that approximately 75% rainfall amount occurred in the months June to September. The seasonal probabilities of occurrencr of rainfall amount were derived from the cumulative distribution function of rainfall amount. During the Kharif season, there were the highest rainfall amounts when compared with other seasons.
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