Climate change – impact on maize crop in the rainfed areas of District Mansehra of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan
Paper Details
Climate change – impact on maize crop in the rainfed areas of District Mansehra of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan
Abstract
In rainfed areas, climate is key to crop productivity and thus livelihood of rural poor. Thus influence of climate change continuously poses major threat to rural livelihoods with more intensity for arid regions. The instant research piece tried to assess the effect of climate change on area and productivity of maize crop in the rainfed areas of district Mansehra. The result showed association amongst variables using ARDL econometric model (1, 1, 1) with AIC. The long run estimation results show that temperature is positively but insignificantly while precipitation is positively and significantly related to maize yield in the long run. Coefficient of ECT shows that at short run relationship between maize yield and temperature and precipitation, around 64% deviances from long-term equilibrium adjusted each year. Regarding relationship between maize area and precipitation, the result shows long run association amongst the model’s variables. The value of F Statistics is higher than upper boundary showing long run relationship among the variables. AIC test shows that temperature is positively and significantly associated while precipitation is positively but insignificantly related to maize area under cultivation in the long run. For the short run relationship between maize area and temperature and precipitation the coefficient of ECT shows that around 82% deviations from the long-term equilibrium are adjusted every year. The study recommends research plans for rainfed areas aiming at evolving crops varieties which offer high yields along with suitability to changing climatic scenarios such as heat and cold resistance and construction of water harvesting facilities.
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