Modeling approach to identify vulnerability of water resources to environmental changes. Application in the basin of the Kebir-Est River (El-Tarf region, Algeria)
Paper Details
Modeling approach to identify vulnerability of water resources to environmental changes. Application in the basin of the Kebir-Est River (El-Tarf region, Algeria)
Abstract
Water resources evaluation in Kebir-East river slope basin is also an evaluation of this resources vulnerability facing environmental changes particularly climate change by water precipitation’s fluctuation which it is a large part of the earth. The aim of this project is to evaluate present and future water resources in two cases of climate changes: the first one is a case of flood and the second one is a case of drought. GIS techniques were used to quantify the spatial and temporal stream flow. The Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model was applied to evaluate water resources development based on an equilibrium scenario of the current water demand and then two different future scenarios are simulated. Water use was simulated for five different sectors (domestic, livestock, wildlife, irrigation and reserve). The analyses revealed that the software WEAP’s application on Kebir-Est’s river basin allowed us to compare two scenarios. The first one is based on hydrologic year and the second on climate changes. So, climate change does not spare our study Kebir East River watershed. Indeed, for decades there has been an irregular rainfall in the region. This leads to reflect on the different situations that may be the population in the future. Thus, different scenarios indicate that the region would face water stress in the future while others suggest the opposite. In order to attain both economic and ecological sustainability, water requirements of various competing sectors in the Kébir East basin must be matched with the available water resources.
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