Observed and future changes in precipitations and air temperatures in the central region of Algeria

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Research Paper 01/07/2017
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Observed and future changes in precipitations and air temperatures in the central region of Algeria

N. Chourghal, F. Huhard
J. Bio. Env. Sci.11( 1), 247-256, July 2017.
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The IPCC reports indicate the Mediterranean basin and North Africa among the most vulnerable regions to future climate change. The latter phenomenon is up to now poorly studied in some of these areas; it is the case of Algeria, the largest country in the whole area. Using recorded climatic data and future projections, this study analyses the recent observed climate and characterizes the future changes in the central region of Algeria. Methodology is based on data analysis, calculation of anomalies and statistical trend tests. The past climate is represented by 56 years (1952-2007) of monthly observed temperatures and precipitations. Climate projections for the distant future (2071-2100) were obtained from the ARPEGE-Climate model of Météo-France run under the medium A1B SRES scenario. During the observed climatic period, there are no trends concerning the rainfall regime but positive trend in temperatures are detected and concerns only summer and autumn. Under future climatic conditions, monthly precipitation decrease and monthly temperatures increase throughout the year. Seasonal rainfall decrease by -16% in winter and by -28% in summer and increase in seasonal temperatures is by +1.7°C in winter and reached +3.8°C in summer.


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