Prediction of the desertification variation trend in Haj Ali Gholi desert basin for 2030 and 2045
Paper Details
Prediction of the desertification variation trend in Haj Ali Gholi desert basin for 2030 and 2045
Abstract
Nowadays, prediction of the desertification variation trend used to explain the drought status for the next decades. In this study, using Landsat time series images, desertification variation trend in Haj Ali Gholi basin predicted using indicators like (drought, soil salinity, vegetation) and other information like (erosion, slope, climate, land surface temperature, evaporation and transpiration), while the desertification trend predicted for 2030 and 2045 using the Artificial Network. Results showed that the average soil salinity is increasing, and the spatial distribution of soil salinity has extended and intensified in the period of 30 years, starting from 1987, when only a small area around the Salt Lake exposed to weak saltification. Soil drought indices also showed an increasing trend. Vegetation indices showed a decreasing trend, leading to increased saltification and desertification. Therefore, developing the vegetation is proved to be the best way for combating desertification. Prediction of the desertification variation trend for 2030 and 2045 conducted using neural network model and results showed that if the current desertification trend continues in the basin, large areas of the basin will be subjected to the risk of desertification in the next two decades. Among the factors used in this model, geomorphology and slope erosion classes, and among the climatic factors, land surface temperature and evaporation and transpiration have the greatest impact on the area desertification trend. The results signified the worsening of desertification in Haj Ali Gholi basin. If this continues, large areas of the basin will be converted to deserted and saltified areas.
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