Sensitivity analysis of crop growth simulation model performance to crop and weather input data

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Research Paper 01/05/2018
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Sensitivity analysis of crop growth simulation model performance to crop and weather input data

Maryam Ahmadi, Abdul Rahim Hooshmand, Saeed Boroomand Nasab, Mohammad Ali Sharifi
Int. J. Agron. Agri. Res.12( 5), 72-84, May 2018.
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Sensitivity analysis is a useful tool for understanding the model’s mechanism. A sensitivity analysis of model determined the effect of input parameters on output parameter and it’s necessary for model calibration and validation. This study focuse on investigation the permormance of WOFOST (World Food Studies) crop growth simulation model for determination of important Variable for model calibration. The model was run in potential production state for 11 years (2005-2016) with Qazvin station weather parameters. Crop and weather variables was changed in acceptable domain and variation of output was examined. Three of most important output was selected for sensitivity analysis. Total above grand production (TAGP), the total weight of storage organs (TWSO) and potential evapotranspiration (ETP) were investigated versus input parameters variation. The most effective variables on TAGP and TWSO were maximum leaf assimilation rate (AMAXTB), specific leaf area (SLATB), extinction coefficient for diffuse visible light (KDIFTB) in crop parameters and SLATB was most effective variables on ETP. TAGP and TWSO didn’t have any sensitivity against wind speed and vapor pressure, but ETP has been sensitive toward all variables. The maximum sensitivity model in term of crop evapotranspiration is related to radiation. Maximum temperature and radiation change the TAGP up to 42 and 55.8 percent respectively. Based on the result the leaf expansion, light interception, assimilation and phenological parameters play key roles in the WOFOST model. This result aid in future model understanding and accuracy of model calibration.


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