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Situationer and forecast of corn production in the Philippines: A time series approach

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Research Paper 10/10/2023
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Situationer and forecast of corn production in the Philippines: A time series approach

Sheila C. Poonon
J. Bio. Env. Sci.23( 4), 59-77, October 2023.
Certificate: JBES 2023 [Generate Certificate]
Key: Agricultural productivityHigh-volume cornVariance inflation

Abstract

Corn holds the distinction of being the third most significant crop in the Philippines in terms of both productivity and land area. It is frequently utilized for either human consumption or as food for animals. Thus, the production of this commodity carries significant implications for food security. The Philippines Statistics Authority (PSA) published statistical reports from which the data used were derived. This study examines the patterns of production trends, pricing, fertilizer costs, and cultivated land area. It aims to assess the impact of these identified factors and provide a projection for the country from 2021 to 2040. The use of a time-series methodology establishes the estimation of volume. Descriptive statistics were included in the econometric model to illustrate the trends and patterns. The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) were employed to estimate the parameters. A theoretical framework was constructed employing the designated dependent and independent variables. The estimating and forecasting procedures were conducted through regression coefficient estimates obtained from the most optimal models. The model’s correctness was assessed by the utilization of three metrics: mean absolute deviation, mean square error and mean absolute percent error. The analysis indicates a consistent upward trajectory in both output and fertilizer prices over the last four decades, accompanied by a notable rise in production volume. A noticeable decline in production was also seen in certain regions. In conclusion, it is anticipated that the time series plot of corn output will exhibit a discernible rising trend over the following two decades.

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