home icon user icon
Welcome to International Network for Natural Sciences | INNS Pub.
Home My Account
Submit Manuscript
double_slash
breadcumb_bg

Situationer and forecast of corn production in the Philippines: A time series approach

Paper Details

Research Paper 10/10/2023
Views (128) Download (19)
current_issue_feature_image
publication_file

Situationer and forecast of corn production in the Philippines: A time series approach

Sheila C. Poonon
J. Bio. Env. Sci.23( 4), 59-77, October 2023.
Certificate: JBES 2023 [Generate Certificate]
Key: Agricultural productivityHigh-volume cornVariance inflation

Abstract

Corn holds the distinction of being the third most significant crop in the Philippines in terms of both productivity and land area. It is frequently utilized for either human consumption or as food for animals. Thus, the production of this commodity carries significant implications for food security. The Philippines Statistics Authority (PSA) published statistical reports from which the data used were derived. This study examines the patterns of production trends, pricing, fertilizer costs, and cultivated land area. It aims to assess the impact of these identified factors and provide a projection for the country from 2021 to 2040. The use of a time-series methodology establishes the estimation of volume. Descriptive statistics were included in the econometric model to illustrate the trends and patterns. The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) were employed to estimate the parameters. A theoretical framework was constructed employing the designated dependent and independent variables. The estimating and forecasting procedures were conducted through regression coefficient estimates obtained from the most optimal models. The model’s correctness was assessed by the utilization of three metrics: mean absolute deviation, mean square error and mean absolute percent error. The analysis indicates a consistent upward trajectory in both output and fertilizer prices over the last four decades, accompanied by a notable rise in production volume. A noticeable decline in production was also seen in certain regions. In conclusion, it is anticipated that the time series plot of corn output will exhibit a discernible rising trend over the following two decades.

VIEWS 28
Cover PDF

Aliyu KT, Huising J, Kamara AY, Jibrin JM, Mohammed IB, Nziguheba G, Adam AM, Vanlauwe B. 2021. Understanding Nutrient Imbalances in Corn (Zea mays L.) Using the Diagnosis and Recommendation Integrated System (DRIS) Approach in the Corn Belt of Nigeria. Sci. Rep. 11, 16018.

Bureau of Agricultural Statistics. 2001. Corn: estimated production, area harvested and yield/hectare, Philippines, 1990-2000. Bureau of Agricultural Statistics, Quezon City, Philippines.

Bureau of Agricultural Statistics. 2008. Major crops statistics of the Philippines (2002-2007). Quezon City.

Bureau of Agricultural Statistics. 2011. Major crops statistics of the Philippines (2006-2010). Quezon City.

Briones RM. 2020. The Fertilizer Industry and Philippine Agriculture: Policies, Problems, and Priorities. Philippine Journal of Development. Philippine Institute of Development Studies 43(1), 29-49.

Carating RB, Fernando M, Abrina Y, Tejada SQ. 2010. State of Organic Agriculture in the Philippines: The Philippine Country Report. Paper to be presented during Workshop on Ansoft of Afaci Panasian Project.

Department of Agriculture. Order No. 3 Series of 2021. Subject: General Guidelines on the Provision of Fertilizer Subsidy under the National Corn Program (NCP).

Eusebio JA, Labios RV. 2001. Food Security: Integrated Farming Systems. JMC Press, Inc. Quezon City, Philippines. 312 pp.

Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). Grain and Feed Annual. Report Number: RP2023-0025. Manila, Philippines. April 07, 2023.

FSSRI. 2000. Annual Report- Farming Systems and Soils Research Institute, College of Agriculture, University of the Philippines Los Baños, College, Laguna, Philippines.

Gerpacio RV. 2003. The roles of public sector versus private sector in R&D and technology generation: the case of corn in Asia. Agricultural Economics 29, 319-330.

Gerpacio RV, Labios JD, Labios RV, Diangkinay EI. 2004. Corn in the Philippines: Production systems, constraints and research priorities. International Corn and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT). Mexico: CIMMYT.

Gonzales LA, Lapiña GF. 2003. The Philippine Corn Industry in Global Transition: Some Strategic Issues and Policy Directions. Paper presented during the First Philippine Corn Annual Symposium and Planning Workshop, January 15-17, 2003, Monte Vista Resort, Calamba, Laguna, Philippines.

Kaiser DE, Coulter JA, Vetsch JA. 2016. Corn Responses to In-Furrow Phosphorus and Potassium Starter Fertilizer Applications. Agron. J. 108, 2493-2501.

Karlen DL, Flannery RL, Sadler EJ. 1988. Aerial Accumulation and Partitioning of Nutrients by Corn. Agron. J. 80, 232-242.

Maghirang RG, de la Cruz R, Villareal RL. 2011. How sustainable is organic agriculture in the Philippines. Trans. Natl. Acad. Sci. Technol. (Philippines). 33 (2), ISSN 0115-8848.

Mojica L E, Banzon AT, Cielo AA. 2013. Good Agricultural Practices (GAP) in the Philippines: Status, issues, and policy strategies. Monograph.

Mullins GL, Alley SE, Reeves DW. 1998. Tropical Corn Response to Nitrogen and Starter Fertilizer under Strip and Conventional Tillage Systems in Southern Alabama. Soil Tillage Res. 45, 1-15.

Ocampo DM, Cotter J, Pelegrina W, Llorin VB, Soriano Z, Baconguis B. 2013. White Corn in the Philippines: Contaminated with Genetically Modified Corn Varieties. Greenpeace, 1-26. https://doi.org/10.1177/106939716800300401

Ocampo V. 2015. Rice and Corn Situation Outlook. Philippine Statistics Authority 2016. Retrieved from https://psa.gov.ph/content/rice-and-corn-situation-and-outlook-july-2016.

Palaje RAM. 2012. Status, problems, and prospects of yellow corn production in Tumauini, Isabela, An undergraduate special problem, Department of Agribusiness Management, College of Economics and Management, UPLB.

PSA (Philippine Statistics Authority). 2015-6. Food Consumption and Nutrition Report

PSA (Philippine Statistics Authority). 2015. Census of Agriculture and Fisheries.

PSA (Philippine Statistics Authority). 2019. Selected statistics. Retrieved from: http://countrystat.psa.gov.ph/

PSA (Philippine Statistics Authority). 2019. Selected statistics on Philippine agriculture. Retrieved from: http://openstat.psa.gov.ph.

PSA (Philippine Statistics Authority). 2022 Palay Production Survey (PPS) and Corn Production Survey (CPS). Retail Prices for Rice, Yellow and White Corn: https://openstat.psa.gov.ph/PXWeb/pxweb/en/DB/DB_2M_RP/?tablelist=true  Wholesale

PSA (Philippine Statistics Authority). 2022 Palay Production Survey (PPS) and Corn Production Survey (CPS). Prices for Rice, Yellow and White Corn: https://openstat.psa.gov.ph/PXWeb/pxweb/en/DB/DB_2M_WS/0052M4AWP01.px/?rxid=bc451628-49f7-4678-a0b7-249bd8a1980

PSA (Philippine Statistics Authority). 2019. Rice and Corn Situation Outlook, January 2019 Round. Retrieved from https://psa.gov.ph/content/rice-and-corn-situation-and-outlook-reports.

PSA (Philippine Statistics Authority). 2020. Palay and Corn Quarterly Bulletin, January 2020. Retrieved from https://psa.gov.ph/content/rice-and-corn-situation-and-outlook-reports.

Quimpo MAT. 1987., Corn production and marketing in selected barangays of Goa, Camarines Sur. 1985-86, An unpublished undergraduate thesis, Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Economics and Management, UPLB.

Rey D. 2012. What is the National Organic Agriculture Program (NOAP). Agriculture (Philippines).

Reyes CM, Domingo SN, Mina CD, Gonzales KG. 2009. Policy Options for Rice and Corn Farmers in the Face of Seasonal Climate Variability. Philippine Journal of Development. Philippine Institute of Development Studies 36(1), 133-157.

Roldan W. 2021. Rising fertilizer: a reality. Special Area for Agricultural Development (SAAD) Program Online ISSN: 2718-9791. Published by the SAAD National Program Management Office Editorial Board.

Salazar, Elca CD, Lapiña GF, Salazar  FJD. (Asian Social Project Services, Inc.) 2021. Published by: Philippine Competition Commission 25/F Vertis North Corporate Center 1 North Avenue, Quezon City 1105.

Signabon LFB, Madamba JAB, Mojica LE, Manipol NEP, Miranda HD. 2017. Decision determinants of indigenous corn farmers in Northern Philippines. Asia-Pacific Journal of Business 8(1), 45-65. http://www.koreascience.or.kr/article/ JAKO201731063138917.pdf

Willer H, Lernoud J. (Eds.) 2015. The World of Organic Agriculture Statistics and Emerging trends 2015. International federation of Organic Agriculture Movements. Retrieved from www.organic-world.net.

Submit Manuscript