Spatial projection of dynamic modeling system: Exploration of Rubber tree plantation and the consequences of REDD+ for the populations of Toumodi in Côte d’Ivoire
Paper Details
Spatial projection of dynamic modeling system: Exploration of Rubber tree plantation and the consequences of REDD+ for the populations of Toumodi in Côte d’Ivoire
Abstract
This study aims at developing a model to investigate agricultural land change in the District of Toumodi due to the introduction of rubber tree and to evaluate the subsequent impact on the forests and the revenue of farmers. Using Landsat images processed with GRASS software, and VENSIM as dynamic modeling tool, three scenario were evaluated:(1)the actual trend of rubber tree planting in the District, (2) an accelerated trend of plantations by entrepreneurs mostly from cities, and (3) preserving land through REDD+ program. The results indicated that under scenario 1, deforestation rate was 0.85 %, which resulted, 30 years later, to 33,000 ha of land cleared while the second scenario lead to 2.13 % deforestation. In the third scenario, the rate was 0.62%, and forest will represented 12.23 % of the territory. Land converted to rubber tree plantation was mainly located nearby the villages or alongside roads leading. Planting rubber reduces lands traditionally devoted to subsistence crops, which may lead to food shortage and food insecurity in the District. It may also cause biodiversity erosion because rubber plantation is a monoculture, leading to the disappearance of non-forest products. The revenues of farmers nearly doubled in scenario 2 due the benefit from sharing with the entrepreneurs, the production of their lands while preserving or maintain forest lands will halve the revenues of farmers. In scenario 3, about 329,000 tons of carbon was gained but its revenue was clearly not enough to motivate farmers to protect or expand protected forests.
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Brahima Bafouet, Joseph Koula, Kouadio Kouakou Bob, Eboua N. Wandan (2017), Spatial projection of dynamic modeling system: Exploration of Rubber tree plantation and the consequences of REDD+ for the populations of Toumodi in Côte d’Ivoire; JBES, V11, N3, September, P7-20
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