The influence of ENSO signal reversal episodes on rainfall variability in the Philippines during the monsoon season
Paper Details
The influence of ENSO signal reversal episodes on rainfall variability in the Philippines during the monsoon season
Abstract
Research studies on changes in the timing and intensification of the southwest monsoon (SWM) are crucial to the Philippines as SWM primarily affects the rainfall climatology of the country. Rainfall brought by the SWM provides most of the water resource in the Philippines for agricultural, industrial, and commercial use. This study aims to evaluate the potential factors that influence rainfall behavior during the SWM season, including sea level pressure, sea surface temperature, and wind speed. This research will also look at the decrease in rainfall using a composite of El Niño, La Niña, and normal years as potential indicators. The “ENSO signal reversal” during El Niño (EN) and La Niña (LN) events was found from 1998 to 2014 for short term climatological analysis and 1961 to 2014 for long term climatological analysis. The simultaneous correlation for both periods shows weak correlation. This is where the researcher finds another way of analyzing the given indicators. Analysis show that: a) over the Pacific, northeast of the Philippines, the sea level pressure during EN has a distinct negative anomaly, while during LN, the sea level pressure has a distinct positive anomaly; b) wind speed over the West Philippine Sea has a positive (negative) anomaly during EN (LN); and c) SST surrounding the Philippines has a negative (positive) anomaly during EN (LN). This study establishes a pattern for ENSO signal reversal in the Philippines that can help mitigate extreme weather events that can affect the economy and industries in our country.
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