Welcome to International Network for Natural Sciences | INNSpub

Paper Details

Research Paper | February 1, 2021

| Download 13

Wheat crop responds to climate change in rainfed areas of District Mansehra, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa- An Econometric analysis

Rizwan Ahmad, Muhammad Zulfiqar, Himatullah Khan, Jawad Ali, Arjumand Nizami, Dilawar Khan

Key Words:

Int. J. Agron. Agri. Res.18(2), 8-16, February 2021


IJAAR 2021 [Generate Certificate]


Agriculture in many ways is affected by climate change and has impact for productivity of crops particularly in rainfed areas. Climate change related research remained a poorly investigated area in KP and instant study filled that gap by investigating impacts of change in climate on farm productivity. The secondary data, spread over 30 years from 1984 to 2013 pertaining to temperature, precipitation, area under cultivation and yield of crops was collected. Analytical models used are ARDL Model. The results pertaining to impact of temperature and precipitation on wheat yield suggest long run relationship among the variables. Temperature is positively and significantly related in Mansehra. The precipitation is positively and significantly related. Short run relationship implies that around 100% deviations from long-term equilibrium are adjusted every year in case of Mansehra. The results wheat areas suggest long run relationship among the variables based on F Statistics value. Both temperature and precipitation are positively and significantly related to the area under wheat in the long run in case of Mansehra. Based on objectives of the research study and field findings recommendations offered include; farmers awareness drive, policies to promote adaptation measures, enhancing farmers’ adaptive capacity to strengthen local resilience, participation of farming community in formulation of policies, making meteorological information available to farmers, Design research plans to evolve crops varieties addressing changing climatic challenges, construct water harvesting structures for high efficiency irrigation and further research to estimate range of temperature and precipitation within which crops under study perform better.


Copyright © 2021
By Authors and International Network for
Natural Sciences (INNSPUB)
This article is published under the terms of the Creative
Commons Attribution Liscense 4.0

Wheat crop responds to climate change in rainfed areas of District Mansehra, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa- An Econometric analysis

Adger WN, Huq S, Brown K, Conway D, Hulme M. 2003. “Adaptation to climate change in the developing world”. Progress in Development Studies 3, 179-195.

Ahmad R, Zulfiqar M. 2019. Climate change-farmers’ perception, adaptation and impact on agriculture in the Lakki Marwat district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Sarhad Journal of Agriculture 35(3), 880-889

Breusch TS. 1978. “Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models”. Australian Economic Papers 17,334–355. DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8454.1978.tb0

Breusch TS, Pagan AR. 1979. “A simple test for Heteroscedasticity and random coefficient variation”, Econometrica 47, 1287-1294.

Brown RL, Durbin J, Evans JM. 1975. “Techniques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relationships over Time,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 35, 149-192.

Calzadilla A. 2009. Economy-wide impacts of climate change on agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa. Working Paper FNU-170. Hamburg: Hamburg University and Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Science.

Chandrasiri WACK. 2013. “Farmers’ perception and adaptation to climate change: A case study in vulnerable areas of Kurunagala district”. Socio Economics and Planning Centre, Department of Agriculture, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka. Annals of Sri Lanka Department of Agriculture 15, pp. 13-23.

Crop Statistics. 2016-17. Crop Reporting Services, Agriculture, Livestock and Cooperation Department, Government of KP.

Diao X. 2010. “Economic Importance of Agriculture for Sustainable Development and Poverty Reduction: Findings from a Case Study of Ghana. Discussion paper”. International Food Policy Research Institute.

Engle F, Granger WJ. 1987. Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing. Econometrica 55(2), 251-276.

Falco DS, Yesuf M, Kohlin G, Ringler C. 2011. “Estimating the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Low-Income Countries: Household Level Evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia”, Environ Resource Econ, DOI 10. 1007/s10640-011-9538-y, Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011.

Godfrey LG. 1978. “Testing Against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models when the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables”. Econometric 46, 1293-1301.

GoKP. 2017. Crop Reporting Wing of the Agriculture Department, Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Hewitson BC. 2010. “Climate Change Scenario Development in Sub-Saharan Africa” SARUA Leadership Dialogue Series Vol. 2, No.4, pp. 46-67.

Johansen S, Juselius K. 1990. Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Applications to Demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 52.

Kangalawe MYR, Lyimo JG. 2013. “Climate Change, Adaptive Strategies and Rural Livelihoods in Semiarid Tanzania”. Natural Resources 4, 266-278.

Khan S, Hasan M, Khan MA. 2012. “People Perception about Climate Change and Adaptation in the Arid Region of Pakistan. The 2nd World Sustainability Forum-2012”

Kwiatkowski D, Phillips PCB, Schmidt P, Shin Y. 1992. “Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root,” Journal of Econometrics 54, 159-178.

Kwiatkowski D, Phillips PCB, Schmidt P, Shin Y. 1992. “Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root,” Journal of Econometrics 54, 159-178.

Maddala GS, Kim IM. 1998. “Unit Roots, Cointegration and Structural Change”. Oxford University Press, Oxford.

Makungwa S. 2010. “Adaptation, Agriculture and Food Security” SARUA Leadership Dialogue Series Vol. 2, No. 4, pp. 68-80.

Parry ML, Fischer C, Livermore M, Rosenzweig C, Iglesias A. 1999. “Climate change and world food security: a new assessment”. Global environmental change 9, S51-S67.

Pesaran, Shin, Smith. 2001. Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16, 289-326.

Pesaran, Shin. 1999. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium. Cambridge University Press. 

Phillips PCB, Xiao Z. 1998. “A Primer on Unit Root Testing,” Journal of Economic Surveys 12, 423-470.

Rosenzweig C, Hillel D. 1998. Climate Change and the Global Harvest: Potential Impacts of the Greenhouse Effect on Agriculture. Oxford University Press.

Synthesis Report. 2014. “Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report”. Summary for Policymakers (IPCC).

Yanda PZ. 2010. “Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptations in Southern Africa” SARUA Leadership Dialogue Series Vol. 2, No.4, pp. 11-30.

Ziervogel G, Zermoglio F. 2009. Climate change scenarios and the development of adaptation strategies in Africa: challenges and opportunities. Climate Research 40, 133-146. doi: 10.3354/cr00804   https://www. en.climate-data.org/location/1299/   https://www.maps-streetview.com/Pakistan    (https://en.climate-data.org/location/1299/     (https://www.maps-streetview.com/Pakistan/)


Style Switcher

Select Layout
Chose Color
Chose Pattren
Chose Background