The use of Holt–Winters’ method for forecasting rainfall of Quetta region
Paper Details
The use of Holt–Winters’ method for forecasting rainfall of Quetta region
Abstract
This paper aims to model and forecast monthly average rainfall of Quetta region. Due to arid nature of this zone, groundwater is one of the major resources for domestic, agriculture, commercial and industrial utilization. Sustainability of groundwater table cannot be maintained because of extreme weather condition. Quetta has faced severe drought situation in the past. It is important to observe the imbalance in precipitation and temperature and forecasting rainfall in Quetta region is of great importance. This study uses multiple regression method to explore the relationship between rainfall and temperature (maximum and minimum). Furthermore, Holt-Winters methods (multiplicative and additive) are employed to forecast the precipitation. Average monthly rainfall from January, 1980 to December, 2016 is used for model building and data from January, 2017 to December, 2017 is used to validate the developed model. Negative relationship is observed between mean maximum temperature and precipitation whereas positive relationship is found between rainfall and minimum temperature. Root mean squares error and Mean absolute error are used as validation measures. Empirical analysis displays that Holt-Winters additive method is appropriate for future forecasting. Moreover, January, 2018 to December, 2020 is forecasted. A decline pattern is observed in future rain fall.
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Samreen Fatima, Rafia Shafi, Sadia Aslam (2019), The use of Holt–Winters’ method for forecasting rainfall of Quetta region; IJB, V15, N2, August, P539-546
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