Climate change: An evil or an opportunity-evidence from the Hindu-Kush Mountain system of Pakistan

Paper Details

Research Paper 01/08/2017
Views (400) Download (10)
current_issue_feature_image
publication_file

Climate change: An evil or an opportunity-evidence from the Hindu-Kush Mountain system of Pakistan

Kishwar Ali, Nasrullah Khan, Inayat Ur Rahman, Siraj Ahmad, Waqar Khan, Murad Ali, Arshad Ali Shedayi
Int. J. Biosci.11( 2), 99-111, August 2017.
Certificate: IJB 2017 [Generate Certificate]

Abstract

Swat district falls in the Hindu-Kush mountain system of Pakistan, is considered as one of the most important biodiversity hotspots of the country. To explore the present floristic diversity of the region, vegetation sampling was done and field experiments were carried out using geo-referenced data of various species of eco-geological interest. Field data was merged with remotely sensed data, obtained from Landsat and LDR missions and processed in GIS for various geospatial analyses, i.e. Climate Change modelling, were developed hotspot analysis, Digital Elevation Models. Max Ent niche climate change modelling technique was used to predict the present and future potential distribution of some species. The results were obtained in the form of model outputs and GIS choropleth maps. It is evident from the results that Malakand division general and swat in partial area has microclimatic niches in various pockets of Malakand division i.e. District Swat, Dir and Chitral. Some locations were found to be extremely poor in floristic diversity and are extremely vulnerable to minute climatic changes. We conclude that the inevitable climate change is not necessarily an evil but could be looked at as an opportunity in hand which could be used for the socioeconomic development of the country. We recommend initiatives like introduction of GIS and remote sensing technologies to the Universities’ curricula and interdisciplinary adaptation approaches in the form of departmental and inter-universities collaboration.

VIEWS 11

AdnanM, Holscher D. 2011. Medicinal plant abundance in degraded and reforested sites in North West Pakistan. Mountain Research and Development 30,25-32.

Ahmad SS, Sherazi A, Shah MTA. 2010. A preliminary study on climate change causing decline in forest cover area in District Chakwal, Pakistan. Pak. Journal of Botany 42, 3967-3970.

Ali K, Ahmad H, Khan N, Jury S. 2013.UnderstandingtheEthnoculturaldomainoftheSwatValley, Northern Pakistan. International Journal of Advanced Research 1(8), 223-239.

AliK, Ahmad H, Khan N, Jury S. 2014. Future of Abies pindrow in Swat district, northern Pakistan. Journal of Forestry Research 25, 211-214.

Armsworth PR, Kendall BE, Davis FW. 2004. An introduction to biodiversity concepts for environmental economists. Resources and Energy Economics 26, 115-136.

Baquar SR. 1995. Trees of Pakistan. Their natural history characteristics and utilization, Royal Book Company Karachi, 634 pp.

Bashir S, Erum A, Kausar R, Saleem U, Tulain UR, Alamgeer. 2012. Antimicrobial activity of some ethno-medicine a plant used in Pakistan, Research in Pharmacy, 2(1), 42-45.

Beigh SY, Nawchoo IA, Iqbal M. 2005. Cultivation and conservation of Aconitum heterophyllum: A critically endangered medicinal herb of the Northwest Himalayas. Journal of Herbs and Spices Medicinal Plants 1, 47-56.

Collins M, Tett S, Cooper C. 2001.Theinternalclimatevariabilityof HADCM3, a version of the Hadleycent recoupled model without flux adjustments. Climmatic Dyanamics 17, 61–68.

Diallo D, Hveem B, Mahmoud MA, Berge G, Paulsen BS, Maiga A. 1999. Anethnobotanical survey of herbal drugs of Gourma district, Mali, Pharmaceutical Biology 37, 80-91.

Elit HJ, Phillips S, Hastie T, Dudik M, Chee Y, Yates C. 2011. A statistical explanation of Max Ent for ecologists. Diversity and Distributions 17, 43-57.

Guisan A, Thuiller W. 2005. Predictingspeciesdistribution:offeringmorethansimplehabitatmodels. Ecology Letters 8 ,993-1009.

Hirzel AH, LeLay G. 2008. Habitat suitability modeling and niche theory. Journal of Applied Ecology 45, 1372- 1381.

Hussain M, Shah GM, Khan MA. 2006. Traditional Medicinal and Economic uses of Gymnosperms of Kaghan Valley, Pakistan. Ethnobotanical Leaflets 10, 72-81.

IPCC. 2007. (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Irshad M, Khan N, Ali K, Muhammad Z. 2016. The influence of environmental variables on Punica granatum L. assemblages in subtropical dry temperate woodland in the district of Lower Dir, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. Turkish journal of Botany 40, 1602-1632.

Khan AU. 2002. History of decline and present status of natural tropical thorn forest in Punjab. Pakistan Biological Conservation 63, 210-250.

Khan N, Ali K, Shawkat SS, Muhammad Z. 2016. Distribution of Pinus roxburghii Sargent associations with environmental correlates in the Swat Hindukush range of Pakistan under current and future climate scenarios. Turkish journal of Botany 40, 1603-1607.

Khan N, Ali K, Shaukat S. 2014. Phytosociology, structure and dynamics of Pinus roxburghii associations from Northern Pakistan. Journal of Forestry Research 25(3), 511-521.

Luoto M, Poyry J, Heikkinen RK, Saarinen K. 2005. Uncertainty of Bioclimate envelope models based on the geographical distribution of species. Global Ecology and Biogeography 14(6), 575-584.

Peterson A.T. 2007. Uses and requirements of ecological niche models and related distributional models. Biodiversity Informatics 3,59-72.

Phillips SJ. 2006. A brief tutorial on Max Ent. AT and T Research, 2006, Availableat: www.cs.princeton.edu/~schapire/MaxEnt/tutorial/tutorial.doc.Accessedon:02/01/2012

Phillips SJ, Dudık M, Schapire RE. 2004. A maximum entropy approach to species distribution modeling. In: Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Machine Learning, ACM Press, New York, 655–662.

Phillips SJ, Anderson RP, Schapire RE. 2006. Maximum entropymodeling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling 190, 231-259.

PulliamHR. 2000. On the relationship between niche and distribution. Ecology Letters 3, 349-361.

Rahman IU, Khan N, Ali K. 2017. Classification and ordination of understory vegetation using multivariate techniques in the Pinus wallichiana forests of Swat Valley, northern Pakistan. The Science of Nature 104(3-4), 24.

Samuelsson G. 2004. Drugs of Natural Origin: a Text book of Pharmacognosy: 5th Swedish Pharmaceutical Press, Stockholm, 551p.

Shinwari ZK, Khan AS, Nakaike T. 2003. Medicinal and other useful plants of District Swat. Pakistan: Al Aziz Communications, Peshawar, Pakistan, 187 p.

Song M, Zhou C, Ouyang H. 2004. Distributions of dominant tree Species on the Tibetan Plateau under current and future climate scenarios. Mountain Research and Development 24,166-173.

Thomas CD, Cameron A, Green RE, Bakkenes M, Beaumont LJ, Collingham YC, Erasmus BFN, De Siqueira MF, Grainger A, Hannah L, Hughes L, Huntley B, Van Jaarsveld AS, Midgley GF, Miles L, Ortega-Huerta MA, Townsend PA, Phillips OL, Williams SE. 2004. Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427, 145-148.

Worldclim.2017. Bioclimaticlayers online accessed on: 03/03/2017. www.worldclim.org/current