Forecast the suspended load baron chay river by chaos theory

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Research Paper 01/07/2014
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Forecast the suspended load baron chay river by chaos theory

Ahmad Pour Mohammad Aghdam, Edris Merufinia, Hazhar Hadad
J. Bio. Env. Sci.5( 1), 396-404, July 2014.
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Estimation of rivers suspended load is one of the major issues of topics related to river engineering, reservoirs management, schemes and hydrologic projects. The chaotic behavior of monthly precipitation time series is investigated using the phase-space reconstruction technique and the principal component analysis method. To reconstruct phase space, the time delay and embedding dimension are needed and for this purpose, average mutual information and algorithm of false nearest neighbors are used. Correlation dimension method is applied for investigating chaotic behavior of the daily suspended sediment statistics, which is the resultant of correlation dimensions, expresses chaotic behavior in the time series to illustrate efficiency of chaos theory for predicting suspended sediment, daily suspended sediment statistics of Maku Baron Chay River investigated for 5years. The delay time and optimum embedding dimension were obtained 8 and 5 respectively. The low amount of correlation dimension (d = 3) represents the chaotic behavior of sediment time series.


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