Predicting the habitat suitability of Vitellaria paradoxa under climate change scenarios
Paper Details
Predicting the habitat suitability of Vitellaria paradoxa under climate change scenarios
Abstract
In Côte d’Ivoire, agroforestry parklands dominated by the Vitellaria paradoxa (shea tree) play a role in smallholder agriculture, soil conservation and food security within the Sudanian and Sudan–Guinean zones. Despite its ecological and socio-economic importance, this species, listed as Vulnerable by the IUCN, is increasingly threatened by overexploitation, habitat degradation, recurrent bush fires, poor natural regeneration and climate change, raising concerns about its long-term persistence. To assess the current and future distribution of V. paradoxa in Côte d’Ivoire, 135 occurrence records from the CNF herbarium and GBIF were modelled using multiple algorithms and WorldClim v2.1 bioclimatic variables under current and future climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585). Multicollinearity was reduced using Pearson correlation coefficients and variance inflation factors (|r| < 0.7; VIF < 8), and model performance was evaluated through bootstrap-based random subsampling (70% training, 30% validation) using AUC and TSS metrics. The results showed that eight predictors were retained, dominated by temperature variables, particularly temperature seasonality (45%), followed by precipitation. Temperature and precipitation are the dominant drivers, while wind plays a secondary role, indicating a narrow ecological niche and high sensitivity to climate change. Currently, suitable habitats cover 36,673 km² in northern and central Côte d’Ivoire. Projections indicate a northward expansion by 2050, reaching 179,568 km²under SSP-245-2050 and 144,338 km² under SSP-585-2050. They also reveal a more pronounced reduction in habitat suitability as the intensity of climate change increases. These results provide spatially explicit guidance for climate-adaptive agroforestry planning, identifying priority areas for conservation, regeneration, and sustainable shea-based expansion.
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Franck Placide Junior Pagny*, Anthelme Gnagbo, Dofoungo Kone, Blaise Kabré, Marie-Solange Tiébré6,, 2026. Predicting the habitat suitability of Vitellaria paradoxa under climate change scenarios. Int. J. Biosci., 28(1), 73-83.
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