Probability analysis for estimation of annual extreme rainfall of Naogaon, Bangladesh

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Research Paper 01/02/2017
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Probability analysis for estimation of annual extreme rainfall of Naogaon, Bangladesh

M. A. B. Barkotulla
J. Bio. Env. Sci.10( 2), 248-253, February 2017.
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Abstract

The daily rainfall data of 39 years of Naogaon rainfall station in Bangladesh from the year of 1971 to 2009 were analyzed to determine the annual one day maximum rainfall. The return period values were calculated by Weibull’s plotting position and expected values were estimated by the best fit probability distribution. Three statistical goodness of fit test (Kolmogorove–Smirnov test (K-S), Anderson Darling test (A2) and Chi-square test χ2) were used to select the best fit probability distribution on the basis of minimum value of test statistic. Five probability distribution functions (viz. Gamma, Normal, Log-normal, Log-Pearson type-III and Gumbel distribution) were tested with the observed values to determine the best fit probability distribution. The Log-Pearson type-III distribution was the best fit probability distribution to estimate annual one day maximum rainfall for different return periods. The results would be helpful for agricultural scientists and engineers to take appropriate policy for agricultural development and constructions of small soil and water conservation structures, irrigation and drainage systems in the study area.

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