Spatial analysis and autocorrelation of population growth in Zamboanga Sibugay Province: A GIS-based analysis from census data and projections

Abstract

Using Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques on census data and projections, this study presents a thorough spatial analysis of population dynamics within Zamboanga Sibugay Province, Philippines, demonstrating patterns of population distribution, density, and growth.  The research reveals trends in population changes over time by using spatial analysis through GIS and secondary data analysis. It reveals notable population increases within the province, particularly in the capital municipality of Ipil, which is attributed to urbanization and the centralization of economic opportunities. The method used estimates future population growth using the Geometric Projection Formula, showing a continuous upward trend throughout the province. By identifying outliers and clusters of similar growth rates, spatial analysis—including Local Moran’s I analysis which provides a more intricate understanding of population distribution and its implications for infrastructure development and resource allocation. The findings demonstrate that while some municipalities face depopulation and significant population growth, indicating trends toward urbanization, others observe substantial population growth, underscoring development disparities and the necessity of focused interventions. The study concludes that Zamboanga Sibugay Province faces uneven population growth, which has consequences for strategic planning related to services, infrastructure, and economic opportunities in order to support growth and reduce disparities.